World Risk Society Essay Example

World Risk Society Essay Example World Risk Society Essay World Risk Society Essay Furthermore they argue that the conditions leading to the emergence of a mathematical theory of probability were dependent on a combination of the Marxist theories concerning changes in the economic means of production as well as Mertons theory concerning the link between religion, the Protestant reformation, and scientific developments; and to relatively recent theories which link the emergence of modern science to a complex chain of scientific, technological, political, economic, religious, institutional and ideological changes (no date:522). Today, notions of risk and probability are complex and incorporate the concepts of risk analysis and management. Lupton illustrates Castels view that the obsession with the prevention of risk in modernity is built upon a grandiose technocratic rationalizing dream of absolute control of the accidental, understood as the irruption of the unpredictable (Castel cited in Lupton, 1999:7). She infers that modern representations of risk are in fact very similar to early forms although today we fear being the victim of a crime, falling prey to cancer, being in a car accident, losing our jobs, having our marriage break down or our children fail at school (1999:3) rather than pre-modern concerns of hunger, epidemic disease and war. For Covello and Mumpower, modern risk analysis has its twin roots in mathematical theories of probability and in scientific methods for identifying causal links between adverse health effects and different types of hazardous activities (no date:523). However, what makes it unique to modern day is its sophistication. They depict that most current ideas about societal risk management are rooted in four basic strategies or mechanisms of control: insurance, common law, government intervention and private sector self-regulation. Beck conveys how modern risks have acquired a fluidity in that they can be changed, magnified, dramatized or minimized within knowledge, and to that extent they are particularly open to social definition and construction (Beck cited in Adams, 1995:181). From the above exploration of events, set in chronological order, it is clear that the emergence of notions of risk and probability cannot be restricted to one particular form or any one period of time. The process was slow and spanned out over thousands of years before reaching the level of sophistication and complexity that we are familiar with today. This essay has attempted to show that the story of risk, in its crudest form, began as early as the human race itself, in the form of the ideology that all life is subject to the risk of death. With this as a starting point, a number of ancient societies, cultures, and individuals, each in very specific ways, propelled the development of risk and probability forward. It is also argued that it was a complex combination of changing cultural beliefs and mathematical experimentation and mastery that, together, allowed risk and probability theory to begin to mushroom during the later part of the Renaissance movement. Firstly, the ancient societies that settled in the Tigris-Euphrates valley were aware of the significance of risk in the context of their expanding appetite and capability for trade and travel. They were yet unaware however of any mathematical notions of probability and cultural belief led them instead to look to signs of the Gods to determine the future. Later, within the realm of ancient Greece, probability theory began to be developed subsequent to the Greeks love of gambling. At this stage however, the limitations of the Greek numbering systems seemed to hinder any further development. Probability theory was not yet being expressed quantitatively and any knowledge of probability theory still failed to be applied to notions of risk, which were still attributed to the supernatural and the will of the gods. This ideology only began to dissipate with the increasing popularity of Christianity which allowed people to feel as if they have some sense of control over their world. The subsequent collision of the Christians with an Arab group brought about the combination of the Christians faith in the future and the Arabs knowledge of the Hindu numbering system that had been developing parallel to that of the Greeks. This was a fundamental breakthrough. Yet it was not until the Renaissance, and the development of applied quantitative probability in risk through the form of business processes such as commercial bookkeeping, that risk and probability theory was able to flourish. Throughout history then it is clear to see that trade, travel and insurance have played a large part in the development of theories of risk and probability. Although their discovery cannot be traced to a particular form, it is the juncture at which mathematical ability, cultural belief and economic drive meet, during the Renaissance, that modern notions of risk and probability begin. Bibliography Adams, John (1995) Risk. London: UCL Press Limited Beck, Ulrich (1999) World Risk Society. Cambridge: Polity Press. Beck, Ulrich (1992) Risk Society cited in Adams, John (1995) Risk. London: UCL Press Limited Bernstein, Peter. L. (1998) Against the Gods: The remarkable story of risk. Chichester: Jon Wiley and Sons, Inc. Castel, R (1991) From Dangerousness to Risk cited in Lupton, Deborah (1999) Risk. London Routledge Covello, Vincent and Mumpower, Jeryl (no date) Risk Analysis and Risk Management: A Historical Perspective in Covello Menkes and Mumpower Risk Evaluation and Management. New York: Plenum Press